ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN BANKING, CONFIDENCE SHOCKS, AND BUSINESS CYCLES

Business cycles in Iran: Evidence from asymmetry and correlated shocks

In this Paper, business cycle asymmetry in Iran has been investigated using a nonlinear unobserved component model. In this regard, according to Kim and Nelsonchr('39')s (1999) interpretation of Friedman plucking model (1993), asymmetric transitory component has been modeled and simultaneously the possibility of a correlation between transitory and permanent shocks has also been considered. The...

News Shocks and Business Cycles

T he discussion surrounding the recent deep recession seems to have shifted the focus from currently used business cycle models to the standard Keynesian model (by which we mean the “old Keynesian,” as opposed to the new Keynesian, model). In the Keynesian model, pessimism among consumers and investors about the economy will simultaneously lower aggregate consumption and aggregate investment, a...

News and Business Cycles in Open Economies

Fluctuations in Confidence and Asymmetric Business Cycles

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle uctuations contain asymmetries. The asymmetries found in post-war US data are inconsistent with the behavior of the US economy in the Great Depression. In a model where business cycle asymmetries are produced by rational uctuations in the con dence of investors, I examine whether this inconsistency can be explained by di erence...

Shocks and Irish Business Cycles , 1922 - 1979

In this paper I estimate a SVAR model to study the transmission of UK shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922-1979, using annual time series for CPI inflation and output growth. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant impacts on Irish inflation, but smaller impacts on Irish real GDP growth. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate demand shocks pl...